Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BC

Buried continuous pipelines are prone to failure due permanent ground deformation as a result of fault rupture. Since the mode is dependent on number factors, probabilistic approach necessary correctly compute seismic risk. In this study, novel method estimate regional risk buried presented. The assessment thereafter illustrated for gas in City Victoria, British Columbia. example considers hazard from Leech River Valley Fault Zone (LRVFZ). uncertainties earthquake rupture, soil properties at site concerned, geometric pipes and operating conditions. Major improvements over existing comparable studies include use stochastic source modeling analytical Okada solutions generate deformation, probabilistically. Previous used regression equations define deformations along fault. Secondly, current experimentally evaluated 3D shell continuum pipe–soil finite element models were pipeline responses. Earlier investigations simple spring–beam pipe evaluate response. Finally, uses multi-fidelity Gaussian process surrogate model ensure efficiency limit required computational resources. developed was successfully cross-validated with high coefficients determination 0.92 0.96. A fragility curve generated based criteria ALA strain limits. risks compressive buckling tensile rupture given considered computed be 1.5 percent 0.6 50 years, respectively.